Likely Voter Survey Likely 2018 General Election Voters

March 19-24, 2018 (N=300)

Do not disseminate without written approval from HighGround, Inc

* Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding

1

2018 November General Election Balanced for Turnout

Age Group:	Gender:

15.0%	29 and under 10.0%	30 to 39 16.0%	40 to 49 28.3%	50 to 64 30.7%	65 Plus

Party:

47.7%	Republican 27.0%	Democrat 18.7%	PND
6.7%	Ind/Other

53.3%	Male 46.7%	Female

Area:

37.3%	Precinct 179 30.0%	Precinct 199 21.3%	Precinct 243
11.3%	Precinct 46

2

In general, would you say that Pima County is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction?

2018	2014 7.0%	7.0% 33.0%	27.7% 12.7%	16.0% 22.7%	28.0%
24.7%	21.3%

Definitely right direction Probably right direction Probably wrong direction Definitely wrong direction
Don’t Know, Refused

40.0%	Total Right

35.4%	Total Wrong

24.7%	DK, Refused

 29 and Under:  30-39:
 40-49:  50-64:
 65+:

53.4% right direction 36.7% right direction 35.4% right direction 35.3% right direction
41.3% right direction

3

In general, would you say that K-12 education in your area is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction?

2018	2014 17.7%	17.7% 20.3%	21.0% 16.0%	14.7% 31.0%	33.3%
15.0%	13.3%

Definitely right direction Probably right direction Probably wrong direction Definitely wrong direction
Don’t Know, Refused

38.0%	Total Right

47.0%	Total Wrong

15.0%	DK, Refused

 29 and Under:  30-39:
 40-49:  50-64:
 65+:

31.1% right direction 43.4% right direction 50.0% right direction 29.4% right direction
41.3% right direction

4

In general, would you say that the size of the schools in your area are too large, too small, or just about right?

2018	2014 17.3%	20.0% 62.0%	64.0% 6.3%	6.0%
14.3%	10.0%

Too large

Just about right Too small
Don’t know, Refused

 29 and Under:  30-39:
 40-49:  50-64:
 65+:

28.9% too large 10.0% too large 31.3% too large 14.1% too large
9.8% too large

5

In general, would you say that the amount of funding the schools in your area receive is too low, too high, or just about right?

65.7%	Too low

21.0%	Just about right 4.7%	Too high
8.7%	Don’t know, Refused

 29 and Under:  30-39:
 40-49:  50-64:
 65+:

86.7% too low 60.0% too low 70.8% too low 67.1% too low
53.3% too low

6

Bond Pre-Test

This November, the Tanque Verde Unified School District is considering a bond election. The bond would fund upgraded safety and security at school sites, buses, technology, and school renovations. The bond would cost $10 million over 20 years or approximately $43 annually for a home assessed at $100,000. Knowing just what you know right now, would you vote Yes or No on the bond?

7

Bond Pre-Test

Total: 64.0% Yes 29.6% No

Definitely Yes, 39.0%

Probably Yes, 25.0%

Probably No, 11.3%

Definitely No, 18.3%
Don't Know, Refused, 6.3%

8

Override Pre-Test

This November, the Tanque Verde Unified School District is considering a budget override election to be held in November of this year to request voter authorization to adopt maintenance and operations fund budgets which exceeds the district’s revenue control limit by not more than 15% for the next seven years. This renewal would support the District's efforts to help maintain present levels of service in all Maintenance and Operation programs teacher salaries, music, art, PE, gifted education, Advanced Placement options, librarians and nurses. The override would cost approximately $89 annually for a home assessed at $100,000. Knowing just what you know right now, would you vote Yes or No on the maintenance and operations Override?	9

Override Pre-Test

Total: 66.7% Yes 28.7% No

Definitely Yes, 39.7%

Probably Yes, 27.0%

Probably No, 8.0%

Don't Know, Refused, 4.7%

Definitely No, 20.7%

10

Rate the following:	(Scale 1-5)

Q7. Art programs

Q8. Band and musical education

Q9. Physical education

Q10. Replacing aging buses

Q11. Technology

Q12. Enrichment programs

Q13. Increased teacher pay

Q14. Improving school security

Q15. Changes to campus and buildings to increase student safety

Q16. Improved fencing and barriers

Very Important, 34.3%	3.76

Very Important, 37.7%	3.92

Very Important, 38.0%	3.90

Very Important, 25.7%	3.57

Very Important, 45.7%	4.10

Very Important, 25.3%	3.66

Very Important, 69.0%	4.47

Very Important, 43.0%	3.92

Very Important, 34.3%	3.76

Very Important, 20.7%	3.26

11

Rate the following:	(Scale 1-5)

Q17. Fixing or replacing air conditioners

Q18. Roof replacement

Q19. Parking lot improvements

Very Important, 43.7%	4.04

Very Important, 34.3%	3.81

Very Important, 9.3%	2.64

Q20. Gifted education

Q21. Advanced Placement

Q22. School Librarians

Q23. School nurses

Q24. School renovations

Q25. Adding science labs

Q26. Adding school capacity for preschools

Very Important, 37.0%	3.93

Very Important, 36.0%	3.91

Very Important, 36.0%	3.84

Very Important, 33.3%	3.85

Very Important, 17.7%	3.37

Very Important, 46.0%	4.14

Very Important, 19.7%	3.12

12

Ranking Proposal Items

		
Imp
	ortance

Mean Q13. Increased teacher pay	4.47 Q25. Adding science labs	4.14 Q11. Technology	4.10 Q17. Fixing or replacing air conditioners	4.04 Q20. Gifted education	3.93 Q8. Band and musical education	3.92 Q14. Improving school security	3.92 Q21. Advanced Placement	3.91 Q9. Physical education	3.90 Q23. School nurses	3.85

13

Ranking Proposal Items

Q22. School Librarians Q18. Roof replacement Q7. Art programs
Q15. Changes to campus and buildings Q12. Enrichment programs
Q10. Replacing agingbuses Q24. School renovations
Q16. Improved fencing and barriers

Mean 3.84 3.81 3.76
to increase student safety 3.76 3.66 3.57 3.37
3.26

		
Imp
	ortance

Q26. Adding school capacity for preschools                                      3.12 Q19. Parking lot improvements                                                          2.64

14

Pro Arguments (Scale 1 to 5)

Mean

Q27. Quality competitive workforce	4.27

Strongly Agree

55.7%

Tanque Verde Unified School District is top rated district and is ranked among the highest in the state. We need to support their efforts to educate a quality, competitive workforce to support our area’s long-term success.

Q28. Quality of life	4.16	52.7%

Quality schools help protect your property values and reduce crime. We need continue to invest in our school system and programs such as class sizes, teacher salaries, music, art, PE, gifted education, Advanced Placement options, librarians and nurses to protect our quality of life.

15

Pro Arguments (Scale 1 to 5)

Mean

Q29. Arizona ranks 48th	4.20

Strongly Agree

61.3%

Arizona ranks 48th in school funding and we are far behind when it comes to investing in our schools. Our schools get less money per student now than they did 10 years ago. Our schools are dramatically underfunded, and we need to give our schools the money they need to educate the next generation.

Q30. Not a tax increase	3.71	35.3%

This override is not a tax increase. It is simply a vote to continue the existing override that is currently in place to fund a lot of important academic programs.

Q31. School security	3.86	41.0%

We need to continue to invest in school security to make sure that our students are safe. These proposals would pay for security and facility improvements includingbuilding improvements, better fences, and single points of entry. The safety and security of our students should be our number one priority..

16

Ranking Pro Arguments

		
Eff
	ective

Mean Q27. Quality competitive workforce	4.27 Q29. Arizona ranks 48th	4.20 Q28. Quality of life	4.16 Q31. School security	3.86 Q30. Not a tax increase	3.71

17

Con Arguments (Scale 1 to 5)

Mean

Q32. Open enrollment concerns	2.74

Strongly Agree

21.0%

The school district continues to grow and have increasing needs because of their open enrollment policy. They could live well within their means and not need as much money if they would stop trying to bring in kids from outside the district.

Q33. Arizona is making progress	2.48	13.3%

The State of Arizona has increased education fundingby more than $1.5 billion over the last 3 years. We are leading the nation in math and reading improvement and have five of the top 10 schools in the country. Arizona schools are making progress and we have done our job to fund our schools.

18

Con Arguments (Scale 1 to 5)

Mean

Q34. Get the hint – voting no	2.58

Strongly Agree

17.7%

It’s time for the school district officials to get the hint. Many districts voted no for school bonds and overrides last year and we’re going to vote no again this year.

Q35. Fixed income	2.69	20.3%

I live on a fixed income and have to live within my means. The schools should learn how to do the same. I have already paid my fair share of education costs.

Q36. Taxed enough already	2.73	22.0%

We are taxed enough already. Taxes go up, they never go down. Taxes hurt our economy and kill jobs. We simply can’t afford another tax.

19

Ranking Con Arguments

Q32. Open enrollment concerns Q36. Taxed enough already Q35. Fixed income
Q34. Get the hint – voting no

Q33. Arizona is making progress

Mean 2.74
2.73
2.69	Effective

2.58

2.48

20

Bond Post-Test

This November, the Tanque Verde Unified School District is considering a bond election. The bond would fund upgraded safety and security at school sites, buses, technology, and school renovations. The bond would cost $10 million over 20 years or approximately $43 annually for a home assessed at $100,000. Knowing just what you know right now, would you vote Yes or No on the bond?

21

Bond Post-Test

Total: 65.0% Yes 28.0% No

Definitely Yes, 41.7%

Probably Yes, 23.3%

Probably No, 10.0%

Definitely No, 18.0%

Don't Know, Refused, 7.0%

22

Override Post-Test

This November, the Tanque Verde Unified School District is considering a budget override election to be held in November of this year to request voter authorization to adopt maintenance and operations fund budgets which exceeds the district’s revenue control limit by not more than 15% for the next seven years. This renewal would support the District's efforts to help maintain present levels of service in all Maintenance and Operation programs teacher salaries, music, art, PE, gifted education, Advanced Placement options, librarians and nurses. The override would cost approximately $89 annually for a home assessed at $100,000. Knowing just what you know right now, would you vote Yes or No on the maintenance and operations Override?	23

Override Post-Test

Total: 68.0% Yes 24.3% No

Definitely Yes, 44.7%

Don't Know, Refused, 7.7%

Probably Yes, 23.3%

Definitely No, 17.0%

Probably No, 7.3%

24

If both the bond and override questions were on the ballot, which of these opinions comes closest to your own?

51.7%	I would likely support both

8.3%	I would likely only support the bond.

12.3%	I would likely only support maintenance and operations override.

19.7%	I would vote no on both 8.0%	Don’t Know, Refused

25

Demographics

Ideology:	Children under 18 at home:

21.3%	Very Conservative

18.3%	Somewhat Conservative

28.0%	Moderate

12.0%	Somewhat Liberal 10.3%	Very Liberal
3.0%	Don't Know

7.0%	Refused

28.3%	Yes 66.7%	No
5.0%	Refused

26